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Looking at the latest GFS model run – the 06Z data – shows almost no change in our weather pattern for the next two weeks. So it looks like with an upper ridge that just won’t budge much we will continue in a summer time pattern with hot afternoons, high humidity, and daily potential for thunderstorms that will range from isolated to scattered – and with little skill to distinguish those days very well.
It was certainly active in my subdivision last night in Helena. An isolated thunderstorm blew up quickly and produced over an inch of rain at my house – 1.14″ to be exact. But the lightning was very intense and frightening. In fact, lightning was probably the cause of a house fire just three houses away from mine. Special thanks to the Helena Fire Department for responding to the call and getting the fire out quickly. My neighbor told me that flames were actually leaping above the tops of trees in the front yard of the house which means the flames were over 90 feet high. Also thanks to the Pelham Fire Department for responding with an additional truck to support the Helena firemen.
Most of the weather will be restricted to our north and south. Showers will be more numerous along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula while rain and thunderstorms will continue along the boundary between the strong ridge and the westerly storm track. This will mean more rain – 3 to 5 inches over the next 5 days – as well as daily severe weather possibilities for the area from the Ohio River valley back to Montana.
For us, the humidity and heat will just keep rolling along with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the lower and mid 70s. Those persistent, hit or miss showers, will also continue with us.
One little interesting point is a very small weakness in the upper air pattern over the Gulf with a weak surface low next Friday and Saturday. This is verging on voodoo country, but this is likely the reflection of that disturbance we’ve seen moving through the southern Atlantic over the last week or so. While no significant development is expected, we’ll need to keep an eye on this feature.
Long range projections continue to show almost no appreciable change in the overall pattern, so the heat, humidity, and daily showers will stick around with us through early July.
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That was one of the most intense lightning displays that I have seen with the small but powerful storm last night – very frightening. I liked the rain but not the lightning. Just a quick reminder, take the lightning seriously. Don’t take any chances with it – be safe, not foolish. I hope that you have a great day. I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 7:30 or 8 tomorrow morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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