Dean continues to weaken as he moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. Here is the situation based on the 10:00 a.m. Advisory.
LOCATION/MOVEMENT
The center of Hurricane Dean was near latitude 19.0N, longitude 89.6W or about 90 miles WNW of Chetumal, Mexico and about 85 miles SE of Campeche. Movement is west near 20 mph and a west to WNW direction is expected today and tonight. The center of Dean will reach the southern part of the Bay of Campeche in a few hours. Another way of saying this is the extreme SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
WINDS/PRESSURE
Highest sustained winds are down to near 105 mph as compared to 165 mph at landfall. He still has higher gusts, however. This means that Dean is now a Category 2 hurricane as compared to a Category 5 at landfall. Amazingly, he was still intensifying as he made landfall on the Caribbean coast of Mexico. It is unusual for a hurricane to still be growing stronger at landfall. Most of the time when the eye reaches the coast, nearly half of the circulation is already over land. Friction with the terrain, trees, buildings and kudzu tend to weaken it some. Dean is expected to still be a hurricane as it slides offshore into the Bay of Campeche. Estimated central pressure was 950mb or 28.05 inches.
RAIN/FLOODING
There is still the prospect of 5-10 inches of rain over Southern and Central Mexico, including the Yucatan, with maximum amounts up to 20 inches. We all know that could produce life-threatenting flash floods and mudslides. The latest tracking chart sends the center of Dean about as far down in the SW Gulf as you can get and still be over water. He should retain hurricane force and move inland on the Mexican coast Wednesday morning. By Thursday morning, he is projected to be a tropical depression about two-thirds of the way across Mexico. It will be interesting to see if the remnants emerge into the Pacific or if it just rains itself out in the mountains.
SPOT REPORTS
CAMPECHE: Cloudy, wind N 36 mph
CANCUN: 81, mostly cloudy, SE wind averaging 10 mph
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN: 82, drizzle, wind NNW 29
MERIDA: Overcast, wind ENE 29
PROGRESSO: Overcast, wind ENE at 29
WEATHER BUOY 42055/BAY OF CAMPECHE: Wind NNE 17, gusts 20, 3-foot waves, water temperature 86
Check out the track forecast map below and you will see that Dean is clearly avoiding the USA and he will traverse the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico about as far down as he can get.
