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WET AT TIMES: Although the radar is quiet this morning, we expect an increase in the coverage of showers and storms across our state today in response to a weaker ridge aloft, and a surface boundary approaching from the north (notice we don’t call them “cold fronts” this time of the year). The front will get down near the Alabama/Tennessee border, and then just crawl southward, so the unsettled weather will continue tonight and tomorrow with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. As usual, rainfall amounts will vary greatly from neighborhood to neighborhood, but many places should see at least 1/2 inch of rain between now and tomorrow night.
And, with the increase in showers will come a decrease in heat levels. The high will be close to 90 today and tomorrow, and some spots won’t get out of the upper 80s. It all depends on the timing of the showers.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: The surface front will drift down further into Alabama, and where it winds up will determine our weather on these two days. For now, we have a dry forecast in place for I-20 and points north… we might have to move that “dry line” up to U.S. 278 a little later today and bring in some risk of a shower or storm for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston. One way or another the most numerous showers and storms on these two days should be over the southern half of the state, and the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama will be dry.
OUR WEEKEND: Pretty much the same situation. The far northern part of Alabama looks dry, South Alabama will be dealing with scattered to numerous showers and storms, while we will have a chance of a shower or storm around here (the I-20 corridor) Saturday and Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, so at least intense heat won’t be a problem.
ALEX ALMOST A HURRICANE: The tropical storm in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico is packing sustained winds of 70 mph, and is headed for the northern coast of Mexico late tonight, most likely as a category one hurricane. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay south. Models and the NHC track are generally in very good agreement; the biggest issue with a storm like this is the flood potential along and north of the landfall center, meaning much of the Texas coastal plain will be soaked during the next 48 hours. The QPF bullseye is near Brownsville, with potential for around 15 inches of rain.
This storm will pass far to the south of the oil spill in the northern Gulf. There will be choppy seas in that area due to the large wind envelope associated with Alex, but it is unlikely that the amount of oil moving inland will change much with the system so far south. Along the Alabama coast, showers and storms are likely on a daily basis through the weekend, but that is generally the result of the weaker upper ridge, and a stalled surface front over Central Alabama.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The weather looks pretty routine next week at this point, with the standard summer mix in place (partly sunny, a few scattered afternoon storms). Highs should be generally in the low 90s. No sign of any new tropical activity on the latest GFS for now. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
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