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The main story for today will be the atmosphere’s response to the MCSs (mesoscale convective systems) moving across the Alabama-Tennessee line this morning. This complex should lay down some boundaries across the northern third of Alabama that will enhance shower and thunderstorm development during the late morning and afternoon as the day heats up. So for the area from about Birmingham northward seems to be the focus for better chances of rain with coverage expected to be fairly good.
Coverage of rain and rainfall amounts will be the best across the northern third of Alabama. The area north of the Tennessee River could well get 2 to 3 inches of rain as the complex moves eastward.
In the upper atmosphere, the troughiness continues Tuesday but the ridge builds stronger by Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. The building ridge should suppress shower chances somewhat bringing us back into the typical pattern for isolated to scattered showers each day. Look for the heat to build back also with highs in the mid 90s primarily but pushing toward the upper 90s.
SPC outlooking a sizable area for a slight risk of severe storms today and tonight across a large part of Arkansas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and much of Kansas. The main slight risk area shifts to the Dakotas and Minnesota on Day 2 while the Southeast could see isolated strong to severe storms. The tropics are quiet at the moment with no specific areas to watch.
The GFS continued to paint a hot week out into voodoo land. The ridge builds in very strong – almost looks too strong – extending the heat well northward and reaching parts of south central Canada. The GFS does cool off New England and the Mid-Atlantic states in the long term while the Southeast remains warm with scattered daily storms.
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