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Looks like the summer heat has peaked, but remember, it will take a little time to get temperatures down to where they should be. The lack of topsoil moisture remains a major factor in the daytime heating process; the sun doesn’t have to work on evaporating soil moisture, and all of the energy can go to heating the ground, which in turn heats the air. So, those model MOS numbers are too low (as they have been for weeks)… but we still believe the temperature trend will be downward in coming days and weeks.
Yesterday, Birmingham’s official high was 105; today we forecast 98. I am sure there will be some spots that do reach 100, but I think a majority of the stations will peak in the upper 90s. And, like yesterday, a few isolated storms should fire up during the heat of the day as the air aloft will be a little cooler, and accordingly the air a little more unstable.
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: The good news is that we will mention the chance of scattered afternoon and evening storms on a daily basis through next week. While they will be scattered, at least a few neighborhoods will see nice rain for about 15 to 30 minutes, and the temporary cooling the thunderstorms on a hot summer day can offer. Highs will be in the mid 90s.
At the end of next week, the GFS continues to show a nice upper trough forming over the eastern half of the nation, which will drive a cold front down this way. That should bring an increase in the number and coverage of showers and storms by Thursday and Friday of next week. This one probably won’t have enough southward push to get us into really cooler and drier air, but the increase in rain will be very welcome for a parched state. See the Weather Xtreme video for the latest Drought Monitor graphic; it sure looks ugly for Alabama.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS looks a little different in the September 7-10 time frame; instead of a major upper trough over the eastern U.S., it places it over the central part of the nation. This would mean a very good rain event with some potential for strong to severe storms here if that is correct. But, this is all voodoo, of course. One way or another the model says no intense heat as we get into September, and that is very good.
TROPICS: After Dean’s passage the Atlantic basin is amazingly quiet this morning and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
