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Let’s begin with those places we are talking about… these are 2:00 observations…
Cullman SKYCAM 78
Riverchase (ABC 33/40 studio in Hoover) 80
Collinsville (Skywatcher Vic Bell) 88
Greenville (the one in Alabama between Montgomery and Mobile) 89
Florala (near the Florida border) 80
Mt. Cheaha 87
Calera (Shelby County Airport) 91
Gadsden 91
Anniston 93
Why the “cool down”? For some, strong storms have formed producing lots of rain, lightning, and a nice cool outflow. For others in East Alabama, the wedge is coming into play. That is cooler air draining down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. But, away from the wedge and storms, the weather is indeed hot. Birmingham reports 98 degrees at 2:00, while Tuscaloosa has reached 100.
The storms in progress across Alabama are barely moving, meaning the possibility of localized flooding in spots, and gobs of very dangerous lightning, which is always especially fierce on a hot summer afternoon. The storms will die down late tonight.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: Not much change. Guidance is suggesting highs in the upper 90s both days, with potential for 100 near the Mississippi border. Mid 90s are likely for East Alabama, and on both days we will widely scattered thunderstorms around during the afternoon and evening hours. An air quality alert remains in effect for Jefferson and Shelby Counties due to the higher levels of ground level ozone during hot summer days in the city.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The heat bubble breaks down a bit and shifts to the west. The coverage of scattered showers and storms should increase Thursday and Friday with the approach of a surface front from the north. The 12Z GFS stalls the front out near the Tennessee border, which makes much more sense than the 00Z run from last night that pushed it all the way down to Mobile. So, for the weekend, we will forecast pretty much standard August weather for Alabama. Hot, muggy days with a few scattered showers and storms around. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR: Tropical depression 4 is expected to become Tropical Storm Colin within the next 24 hours. The system is in the middle of the Atlantic, about half way between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Guidance and the official NHC track bends the system poleward in 3 to 5 days, passing north of the islands, and to a point between Bermuda and the Bahamas Saturday. Most likely this one will recurve into the open Atlantic thanks to an upper trough that is expected to be over the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend.
Other waves are showing up over the tropical Atlantic, and it sure looks like August will be rather active. We will be watching.
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