Nearly two years ago to the hour, this was the message composed by NWS Lead Forecaster Robert Ricks at the Forecast Office in Slidell, Louisiana and transmitted to media, emergency managers and the public.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…
.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
The doomsday message was part of an electronic toolbox of releases developed for offices facing a major disaster, such as a severe hurricane. Ricks’ duty was to custommize the message for his audience. As he went down the list of impacts, he checked them off: this would happen, that would happen, and oh yes, that will happen. He had lived in the Ninth Ward during Betsy and Camille, so he had an accurate vision of what might happen from the even bigger threat posed by Katrina.
For issuing this unprecedented, but extremely informative weather warning statement in advance of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina indicating the catastrophic damage expected for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, no doubt saving countless lives, Mr. Ricks won the National Weather Association Operational Achievement Individual Award in 2006.
This award is presented to a NWA member who has made a significant contribution to operational meteorology for an accurate/timely forecast for one or more significant weather events or for sustained superior performance.
Here you see Mr. Ricks on the left receiving the award from NWA President David Knapp…
Source: www.nwas.org
He also won the American Meteorological Society Award for a Specific Prediction and a NOAA Administrator’s Award.
Hear this WeatherBrain tell his story to the rest of our podcast crew on this week’s episode of WeatherBrains. Scroll down for a link to the show. You can also download it or listen to it on iTunes. Just type in Weather Brains at the iTunes Music Store.
