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TROPICAL MOISTURE: The old man that was known as TD5 last week is inland this afternoon and near Baton Rouge, Louisiana. This feature will move slowly north, up the Mississippi River, then turning northeast over Tennessee in coming days. This will keep us in a deep layer of tropical moisture through the rest of the week, and we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and storms tomorrow and Thursday, with potential for heavy rain at times. Rain amounts between now and Friday will average 1 to 2 inches, with potential for well over 3 inches in spots. Scroll down for details on the flooding this morning up in Northeast Alabama; other flooding problems are very possible in coming days.
Temperatures will trend downward with a limited amount of sunshine; the NAM is printing a high of only 88 degrees in Birmingham tomorrow and Thursday, while the GFS is a little warmer with low 90s. We will forecast highs in the 88 to 92 degree range, so there is certainly some chance our long 90 degree streak will end. Today is the 44th consecutive day with a high of 90 or hotter for Birmingham. This had indeed been a long, hot summer.
OUR WEEKEND: While the tropical low will dissipate, moist air goes nowhere, so we will have to dodge scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Highs over the weekend should be in the low to mid 90s.
TROPICS: A wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean this afternoon with no sign of organization. We do note the GFS ramps up a tropical system in the Atlantic next week; it brings the system into Jacksonville as a hurricane on August 28. But, we all know this is voodoo and will change. The idea of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic, however, seems to be a good one with consistent model output.
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