Muggy Summer Days

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WILL WE BREAK THE STREAK? Very close call. We are using a high of 89 in our forecast today; if that verifies at the Birmingham Airport that our long string of consecutive 90 degree days will come to an end. But, it all depends on clouds and shower formation. Yesterday was the 45th consecutive day of 90 degree plus heat for both Birmingham and Tuscaloosa (Anniston had their streak come to an end this past Saturday when their high was 88). Model-wide, the NAM is printing a high of 88 today, while the GFS shows 90. We just split the difference.

VERY MOIST AIR: The PW (precipitable water) on the Shelby County Airport sounding last night was 2.43″, which is about as high as it gets. This should mean scattered to numerous showers and storms again today with potential for heavy rain in spots. A good example of this yesterday was up in Winston County, where our Skywatcher there measured 3.26″ for the day. That is certainly heavy in my book.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The overall weather picture won’t change much, with very moist air staying in place. A few showers and storms are likely each day with a mix of sun and clouds, and a high around 90 degrees. We note the GFS is backing away from the idea of drier air creeping into North Alabama Sunday; let’s watch the 12Z run before we make any changes in the forecast. Bottom line is that the weekend won’t be a wash-out, but it could rain at just about any time Saturday and Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Uncertainty is the word with model madness… the 00Z GFS keeps the moist air in place through much of next week. Previous runs had relatively dry air over North Alabama. And, just for fun, the ECMWF now puts a tropical low over Louisiana toward the end of the week.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin. The tropical wave over the western Caribbean shows no sign of organization, and it looks like it will move into Central America without development. And, the wave that came off the African coast looks pretty pitiful as well. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a tropical storm or hurricane off the East Coast of the U.S. in about a week, but the latest runs have kept it well offshore.

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