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NOCTURNAL CONVECTION: Now those are two fancy words. Sometimes when you are in a pure tropical airmass like this, showers and storms can develop in the middle of the night, and that was the case overnight. Storms initially formed over West Alabama around Greene and Hale counties, and the rain has been expanding steadily during the pre-dawn hours, and rain now is falling in a broad zone from Greensboro to Leeds. The heaviest rain at 5:45 was over Bibb and far East Tuscaloosa County, and near Leeds. There is little movement, and some flooding problems could develop between Tuscaloosa and Brent where the rain is really coming down.
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change in the airmass, or the overall weather situation. Dewpoints stay up in the 70s, and each day we will be dealing with scattered showers and thunderstorms, with potential for heavy rain in spots. There should be enough sunshine to push highs up into the low to mid 90s each day through Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: While there is dry air just north of here, no sign of it moving deep into Alabama, so persistence is the best forecast for next week. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. And, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower in this regime. Highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
TUSCALOOSA’S STREAK IS OVER: Tuscaloosa’s high yesterday was 89 degrees, so their string of consecutive 90+ degree days stopped at 45. Anniston’s streak ended this past Saturday, but Birmingham somehow managed to reach 93 yesterday, making it the 46th consecutive day with a high of 90 or higher.
TROPICS: A weak tropical wave in the far western Caribbean will move into Central America today… but the one to watch is the wave in the far eastern Atlantic. Some chance this will develop slowly in coming days. Seems like the GFS does develop this, but recurves it into the open Atlantic well east of the U.S. in 6 to 8 days. We will keep an eye on it.
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