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MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD: A surface low pressure center is just off the Louisiana coast this afternoon, with thunderstorms near the center over the Gulf of Mexico getting more concentrated. With the low drifting northwest, it sure looks like we will more moisture around this weekend than expected earlier this week, and we will adjust the forecast to include some risk of scattered showers and storms tomorrow and Sunday. Models are not in good agreement about tomorrow; the GFS is rather dry, while the NAM brings deeper moisture into Alabama. Both models suggest Sunday will be a day with scattered showers and storms, possibly numerous at times over the western half of the state.
The NAM is now printing 1.31″ of rain for Birmingham over the next 60 hours, which might be a little too aggressive. But, it is certainly possible, depending on the behavior of the system on the Gulf Coast. The heaviest rain of all should be near the Gulf Coast.
Highs over the weekend should be in the upper 80s tomorrow, with mid 80s on Sunday due to clouds and showers.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few scattered showers are possible this evening, but those will die off rather quickly. Most stadiums will be dry, but a shower can’t be ruled out during the first half of some games. Temperatures will drop from the low 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the final whistle.
NEXT WEEK: We will need to carry the chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast on Monday, but beyond that the rest of the week looks mostly dry with highs in the low 90s.
TROPICS EXPLODING: Five, count em, five systems to discuss this afternoon…
GULF OF MEXICO: The low near the Louisiana coast, most likely, won’t have time to become a tropical depression “officially”, but the impact will be about the same. Potential for heavy rain over Southeast Louisiana, and the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this weekend. And, more moisture up this way than we anticipated earlier this week.
DANIELLE: A major hurricane with winds of 135 mph, located about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda. This will recurve well east of the U.S., and east of Bermuda this weekend. No threat to land.
EARL: Now a tropical storm with winds of 45 mph about 1300 miles east of the Leeward Islands, this should become a hurricane over the weekend, reaching major hurricane status early next week as it passes north of the Leeward Islands. Earl should recurve off the East Coast of the U.S., but could be a threat to Bermuda.
FIONA? The strong tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands, should become a tropical depression at any time, and Tropical Storm Fiona over the weekend. Again, this has the potential to become a major hurricane at some point on the journey across the Atlantic. This should pass north of the Leeward Islands, like Danielle and Earl, and most likely will be a candidate to recurve just off the East Coast of the U.S., but this is certainly not a lock and it will need to be watched closely.
GASTON? Yet another strong wave will come off the coast of Africa tonight, and has the potential to become Tropical Storm Gaston in the Atlantic. No way of knowing the path of this one yet, but it seems with each wave the potential to impact the U.S. coastline gets higher.
The wave train is working overtime now, and there is no end in sight, so September looks like a very active month. Hang on.
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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday; my next video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!
