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I’ve got some big news to start off this edition. We’ve set the date for the 2007 Storm Alert Xtreme. Special thanks goes to Brett McBrayer with the Birmingham Automobile Dealers Association for sponsoring the event again this year. It will be held in conjunction with the 2008 International Auto Show on Saturday, November 10, 2007. All the details have not been worked out, but we hope to start around 8:30 or so with a full day of severe weather information. Be sure to watch the Blog for more details as we get closer to the event. But in the meantime, mark those calendars for November 10th so nothing else gets in the way of some serious severe weather discussion.
And more big news, we have Tropical Storm Felix. Felix was named this morning and at the moment is barely a tropical storm. However, as it continues a westward trek across the Caribbean, it is expected to intensify into a hurricane by early, September 4th, and perhaps a category 2 storm by the 5th. The current model projections are in pretty good agreement on the steady westward progression. This track appears to be very similar to Dean, so it looks like the same areas could be affected again with another strong storm. I think this current forecast looks very good, but when you get out six days there is always uncertainty. So a watchful eye will continue to be kept on Felix to make sure it doesn’t do anything crazy.
For Central Alabama, we have a dilemma in the form of drier air poised just north of us. Precipitable water values were still over 2 inches here but Nashville was down to just over 1 inch. With the deeper moisture still in place today, showers are a reasonably good bet again this afternoon and into the evening. Those showers really played havoc with high school football games lst night. I was helping out with collecting scores for the Blitz, and a bunch of games were delayed or suspended for later play. But the rain is still a welcome item for many. Deficits in rainfall are down a bit but deficits of 20 inches are going to be hard to overcome. And the drought has begun to take a toll with dead trees showing up in many spots.
Whether or not the moist air mass stays in place is up for debate. The GFS continues to suggest that the atmosphere over Central Alabama will dry out, but I just can’t quite bring myself to remove showers for the next week. I think we’ll continue with scattered showers with highs generally around 90 or so and lows in the lower 70s. There just does not seem to be enough movement in the overall patterns to suggest that we won’t just stay with persistence.
And the longer range forecasts build a strong ridge back into the Southeast – no triple digit heat – but probably some mid 90 values will be possible along with scattered showers. That strong ridge also keeps away tropical systems.
I hope that you have a great weekend – a long one for many with Labor Day on Monday. I should have another Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 or 8:30 am tomorrow. Enjoy life and the weather – and God bless.
-Brian-
