Somehow I’m getting a bad feeling about Felix. Only a tropical storm for about 7 hours now, Felix is doing things his way already. When I posted the Weather Xtreme Video this morning, less than 3 hours ago, it looked like Felix might not become a hurricane until the 4th, but the Hurricane Hunter plane in there this morning is finding a much stronger storm than anticipated. The latest National Hurricane Center discussion is showing additional uncertainty with statements now like, “WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT…IT IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.”
And looking at the projected tracks from the various models, it appears that there is some additional spread in the longer term. This is not unusual, but I can’t help but wonder about this storm when the latest discussion states, “BEYOND 3 DAYS…THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.”
So like I said in the discussion this morning, we are going to need to keep a watchful eye on Felix as will everyone along the US Gulf Coast.
We won’t need to watch Kevin Selle, our colleague in Texas, because he’s already stated in some IM posts that Galveston is the target. Boy, when Kevin gets locked into something, he can surely be tenacious. But we’ll see.
-Brian-
