Air Force reconnaissance found a flight level wind of 77 knots or 90 mph at 5:41 p.m. this afternoon. Adjusting that to the surface, Felix now has top winds of 75 mph.
The central pressure is down to 993 mb.
The hurricane is located some 270 miles east of Aruba, still moving west at 18 mph.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Jamaica. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba.
The official forecast track carries it to just off the Honduran coast Tuesday afternoon and then to a landfall in Belize Wednesday as a major hurricane, emerging into the SW Gulf still as a hurricane on Thursday.
Things will be getting interesting toward the end of the forecast period as the model predict that a trough will develop over the southern U.S., perhaps turning the hurricane more northwesterly or northerly.
The GFS still does not have a good handle on the storm. Im fact, it doesn’t even recognize it. The GFDL now carries it into Honduras where it dissipates. The Canadian agrees well with the official track. The morning run of the NOGAPS carries it toward the Yucatan Channel, barely brushing Cozumel as it moves northwestward.
Gonna be some interesting days ahead in the weather office.
