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SUBBORN SHOWERS: We begin the day with a few light, illegal shower activity over Alabama (when we say illegal, that means we didn’t forecast them to be there). This is in association with a weak surface trough that the models were not able to identify, and is hanging tough this morning. The rain is very light and spotty, and they should be totally gone sooner than later as a strong upper high builds across the region. The bone crushing subsidence should take care of the light rain by mid to late morning, and the sky should be partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. Assuming this happens, the high today should be 90 as a warming trend begins.
We have to celebrate Birmingham’s high of 78 degrees yesterday; that is our coolest maximum for the month of August. You have to go back to May 30 to find our last day with a high of 78 degrees. At Pinson, just northeast of Birmingham, the high was only 75.
REST OF THE WEEK: The weather looks dry tomorrow and Thursday with hotter afternoons; both the NAM and the GFS are printing highs in the mid 90s on Thursday, a reminder it can be pretty hot in early September around here. Then, on Friday, a surface front moves through that has come chance of kicking off a shower or two, but widespread rain at this point looks fairly unlikely.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: A nice surge of dry, continental air moves in here just in time for the holiday weekend. Highs drop into the 80s Saturday and Sunday, and the latest GFS MOS product is printing a low of 61 for Birmingham Sunday morning. No doubt a number of places around here will reach the 50s at daybreak Sunday for a real preview of fall. We warm up a bit Monday with a high around 90. Look for lots of sunshine each day over the weekend.
EARL: Earl remains a category four hurricane this morning with winds of 135 mph, and a central pressure of 931 mb. The system is moving away from Puerto Rico now, and will move northwest toward the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. A strong upper trough will turn Earl to the north, and then northeast… timing that turn is critical to the impact on the coast. Some of the reliable models have Earl within 150 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night or during the pre-dawn hours Friday, with a similar brush with Cape Cod late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Earl will slowly weaken after Wednesday as it encounters cooler water, but no doubt it will bring very dangerous surf to all of the upper Atlantic coast, and there will be wind and rain for the Outer Banks and parts of the coast. How much wind and rain all depends on the track, but all reliable model guidance does keep the center offshore.
FIONA: This is the tropical storm coming up behind Earl, and this one is struggling due to marginally favorable upper air winds, dry air around the system, and upwelling from Danielle and Earl. NHC keeps Fiona as a tropical storm, and most models recurve this one into the open Atlantic before reaching the U.S. (we do note there are a few outliers).
GASTON? The wave behind Fiona shows no sign of organization at this point, but it has some chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston at some point in the days ahead. Too early to determine the destination.
And, yet another large and well organized tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow night. The wave train keeps rolling along. We have to wonder if this could be a September to remember in the tropical Atlantic basin.
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