An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Wow… I just noticed today’s video runs almost 10 minutes. That is one of the great freedoms of the Internet videos we provide; we don’t have a producer in our ear telling us to wrap it up; if we need 10 minutes, we can take it. The TV world limits us with some serious time restrictions… but not here. I do encourage you to watch the video since most us of us coming from the world of broadcast meteorology tend to be better at communicating with video (we aren’t the best writers!).
THE ALABAMA STORY: Lower dewpoints have moved into the northeast part of the state; at 5:00 a.m. the observation at Desoto State Park in DeKalb County was 63 degrees… not bad at all. You have to wonder if Valley Head might report a low of 59 degrees this morning (a small community at the foot of Lookout Mountain, below Mentone). At this point it sure looks like most communities across the northern half of the state will be dry today. A few showers could pop up, but they will be isolated.
The NAM brings the moisture back, and it prints some decent POPs (probability of precipitation) tomorrow and Thursday afternoon, which would suggest scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms. But, the GFS is much drier. It will be an interesting battle between deep moisture just to the west, and the very dry air just to the east. I don’t think you can ignore the NAM with the moist air so close.
WEEKEND PEEK: Moisture levels will increase by Friday and the weekend, and we will mention the chance of scattered showers and storms on those three days. Then, early next week, the GFS develops a very nice long wave trough which drives a cold front down our way; if this is correct then Monday would be relatively wet with showers and storms, and a little bit of cooler and drier Canadian air could arrive one week from today. This is not the kind of setup to get us in the 40s, but some spots might reach the 50s over North Alabama. I am not sure this front will have enough southward push for this to happen, but the 00Z GFS is on that bandwagon.
TROPICS: Very active out there, as you might expect in early September. Felix is about to make landfall as a strong category four storm; it might even regain category five status by landfall in Central America. Scroll down for J.B.’s early morning update on Felix.
We note Henriette is now a hurricane in the eastern Pacific; this one will move northward, up into Baja California within 24 hours. Then, the moisture from the system is headed for Arizona, New Mexico, and the far western part of Texas. This will enhance the monsoon flow, and possibly set up a flooding threat for that part of the nation later this week.
EAST COAST THREAT DEVELOPING? Sure looks like it. A broad low, now east of Jacksonville, will hang around through mid-week, and many of the models are now developing this into a tropical cyclone. Lots of model madness now, but we note the GFS, the European, and the GFDL all bring this thing really close to the Atlantic coast, possibly as a hurricane, by the end of the week and the weekend. The European is the farthest south, with a position near Charleston on Saturday, while the GFS and the GFDL keep it just offshore, east of Chesapeake Bay at the same time. Everyone from Jacksonville to Boston will need to watch this thing.
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I am off to Tuscaloosa today to speak to the senior adults at South Highlands Baptist Church… these kind of events often feature a really good lunch. As I often say, if you can’t sleep, you have to eat! I will be back by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30….
