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AUTUMNAL EQUINOX: Fall arrives at 10:09 p.m. tonight (CDT), but summer is holding on tight. Birmingham tied a record high yesterday with 98 degrees, and we stay hot today, but not quiet as hot as recent days. We project a high today in the 91 to 95 degree range with a good supply of sunshine, and only isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight. The weather won’t change much tomorrow and Friday; highs mostly in the low 90s with the risk of isolated storms each afternoon. Keep in mind when we say “isolated”, that means most places won’t get wet.
CHANGE BEGINS THIS WEEKEND: An upper low is forecast to develop northwest of Alabama this weekend, and marks the beginning of a pattern change that will mean better chances for rain and cooler temperatures. Scattered showers and storms will become a little more numerous Saturday with a high around 90, followed by a day on Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and storms and a high only in the low to mid 80s thanks to the clouds and rain. Keep in mind Birmingham has measured only 0.05″ of rain for the entire month, so some wet weather is very welcomed here across our parched state.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Showers and storms are likely Monday as well, but the drier air begins to move into the state Tuesday, and by Wednesday and Thursday we should be dry as the upper low/trough move to the east. The good news is that temperatures should be very pleasant with highs around 80. In fact, some places might not get out of the 70s next week, and lows should drop into the 50s by Wednesday and Thursday morning.
We also note next week both the GFS and the ECMWF bring a tropical system north from the western Caribbean (Matthew??), in the general direction of Miami. Both models have the system just off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. on October 1. If this verifies, Alabama would be on the dry side of the system with a nice northerly flow of cool continental air into our state.
TROPICS NOW: Tropical Storm Lisa in the East Atlantic is moving very slowly to the northwest, and is no threat to land in the short term. The wave in the Caribbean remains disorganized, but is expected to become Tropical Storm Matthew in coming days. Most models bring this one toward Central America, but a north turn develops about the time it approaches land, and this could very well move up toward Cuba and South Florida. Too early to be sure… we will be watching.
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I will doing a weather program this morning at Hard Elementary School in Bessemer, and then I serve as a “celebrity waiter” at a fund raiser at Metropolitan Church of God during the lunch hour (that could be a disaster). Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
