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Be sure to scroll down and read Tim Coleman’s excellent discussion on issues I am about to talk about here…
A few showers have been holding on all night over the far western side of Alabama, closer to deeper moisture that is over the Mississippi River valley. Even though the GFS looks pretty dry through Monday, we will continue to mention the chance of widely scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis through the weekend. The best chance of a shower will be west of I-65, and even there many communities won’t see much rain. Most communities will see a high somewhere between 89 and 94 degrees through the weekend.
FOOTBALL: While we can’t rule out a shower or two, we believe now that most stadiums will be rain-free tonight and tomorrow night for the high school games across Alabama. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, and the higher humidity levels will be on the western side of the state.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS brings a nice cold front down our way by Tuesday of next week with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. To the north, a refreshing airmass will drop down into the Midwest and the Plains featuring some of the coolest air seen since the spring. But, most of that will remain north of Alabama. In fact, the GFS stalls the front around Birmingham on Wednesday before any of it can reach us. But, that setup might help with some decent rain amounts through the middle of next week.
EAST COAST HURRICANE THREAT: While our system in the Atlantic, northeast of the Bahamas, is fighting some fierce wind shear this morning, the environmental conditions are expected to improve greatly during the next 24 hours, and the models continue to develop a tropical cyclone that will move toward the coast of North Carolina. The best model blend has the system cutting right along the North Carolina Outer Banks over the weekend, then curving northeast back out to sea. The GFDL model has backed off on the intensification process; it has the system moving through the Carolina coast as a tropical storm. But, the SSTs are still very warm in advance of this system, and the idea of this becoming a hurricane before the time it approaches the coast is not too far fetched. Watch the video for more…
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I have a busy day ahead; this morning I will be speaking to students at Ashville Elementary School; I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
