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While our weather here will be relatively benign over the next few days, there is plenty to discuss today.
WHAT ABOUT GABRIELLE? I still think there will be a hurricane threat to the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. Yep, ole invest 99 has really struggled in the last 48 hours, but the shear has been intense, and that hostile environment will relax overnight. With a more favorable upper air pattern that will promote good outflow, and the warm Gulf Stream below, you have to figure this has a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Gabrielle tomorrow, and possibly Hurricane Gabrielle by Saturday. The GFDL ramps the system up to hurricane strength, and brings it to a point near Wilmington Sunday morning. Most of the models agree on the general idea of bringing the system to the coast of North Carolina, followed by a turn more to the east that takes it back out to sea early next week.
Despite the lack of development today, everyone from Charleston to Baltimore needs to be on a close watch for this one.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Showers and storms should remain rather widely scattered through Monday, as the deeper moisture pool will remain a little to the west of Alabama. The best chance of showers during the next few days will be over the western side of the state, and afternoon highs statewide will generally be in the 89 to 92 degree range. Most high school football stadiums will be dry tonight and tomorrow night, and where showers do form, the rain won’t last long.
NEXT WEEK: The coolest air so far this season will plow through the Plains and the Midwest. For places up on the Canadian border, looks like the high will be close to 50, and the low close to 30 by the middle part of next week; doesn’t that sound refreshing…
The leading edge of that airmass will approach Alabama on Tuesday, with a general increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. The 12Z GFS suggests it might be Tuesday night when the main band of showers and storms arrives ahead of the front.
Still great debate on the idea of getting the cool and dry Canadian air into Alabama next week; the 12Z GFS hints that we might have a shot at lows in the 50s over the northern third of Alabama by Thursday morning (one week from today), but it all depends on where the front becomes stationary.
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I sure enjoyed speaking to the 3rd graders at Ashville Elementary this morning; be looking for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 this afternoon. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
