An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
While we have been focused on the developing tropical system in the Atlantic, we better keep our eye on the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. Lets break it all down…..
OUR WEEKEND: No real change in our thinking for the weekend. Mostly dry; any showers will be isolated, and mainly on the western third of the state. Afternoon highs in the 89 to 92 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds both days. Most high school football stadiums should be dry tonight.
GABRIELLE: The system northeast of the Bahamas continues to get better organized, and we will be getting back some data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the vicinity of the system soon (AF308). The models remain in fairly good agreement, many of them moving the system in the general direction of the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks on Sunday as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane. However, the new 12Z GFDL has just arrived, and it moves the system to a point near Charleston, South Carolina on Sunday as a strong tropical storm. The 12Z NAM is similar to the GFDL, so the entire coastline of North and South Carolina is in play for now. I also have concern the models are underestimating the potential for rapid strengthening…. so our advice is for everyone along the coast of the Carolinas to stay in close touch with developments over the weekend.
HUMBERTO? The Gulf of Mexico is unsettled, and very warm. The NAM develops a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (and the GFS to some degree), and if that is the case there is a reasonable chance it will be forced northward by the deepening upper trough over the U.S. next week. The GFS brings it up into the vicinity of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi at mid-week, with a rain event now showing up for all of Alabama on Wednesday. Like Gabrielle, I have concern that this might strengthen rapidly… there is a ton of latent heat energy available in the Gulf right now. Interests along the Gulf coast need to watch this closely; the best possible scenario for us is for the system to remain loosely organized, moving inland, and bringing some big time rain totals to the state at mid-week. But, systems rarely remain “loosely organized” this time of the year.
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON: Some very chilly air will drop southward into the U.S. next week… looks like the first frost of the season for many cities up in the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest; if we do have a tropical system moving up through Alabama at mid-week, some of that cool air should be pulled southward in the wake of the system, and there is a very real chance we get a change to much cooler air at the end of the week. Lots of “ifs and buts” here… so we will just have to wait and see. Anytime a tropical system is involved, almost anything goes.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Brian Peters will have the video updates over the weekend from high atop Mount Cheaha; my next video will be posted here bright and early Monday morning. Enjoy the weekend!
