Gabrielle is a subtropical storm. We say subtropical, because it does not have full tropical characteristics, namely a structure that is warmer at the center. An extratropical low, like we see on land, it cold core, or colder at the center. Gabrielle is a hybrid. It could still acquire full tropical characteristics before landfall. But as we always caution, cold core or warm core, a storm with 45 mph winds still is a 45 mph storm. It is a weather element to be reckoned with.
It is located about 240 miles ESE of Myrtle Beach, SC or about 290 miles southeast of Cape Fear, NC.
Movement is WNW-12 mph. It should make landfall near Cape Lookout on Sunday about 2 p.m. in the afternoon. It will already be inthe recurvature process, turning more northeast with time. It will cross eastern North Carolina, head back out to sea, and become fully extratropical as it parallels the coast going northeastward. All of the model guidance is tightly clustered on this solution.
Maximum sustained winds are still 45 mph. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. The estimated central pressure is 1011 millibars.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina. Warnings may be required later today.
Two reconnaissance flights are scheduled for later today.
In the Gulf, the models still portray a tropical low developing in the southern Gulf, but last night’s runs indicate more of a movement toward Mexico.
