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BIG WARM-UP: You can tell the air is extremely dry when temperatures rise 40 degrees or more during the day, and that will happen for many Alabama communities today. We have some spots in the 30s this morning (Gadsden, Scottsboro, and Valley Head report 39 at 5:00), but the high today should be in the low 80s with a sunny sky. We expect some places to reach the mid 80s tomorrow, not too far from record territory for mid-October. Birmingham’s record high tomorrow is 88 degrees set in 1938.
MID-WEEK SHOWERS? There is actually pretty good agreement in modeling concerning a short wave that might bring a few showers to our state late tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. But, moisture levels are very limited, and rain amounts should be light and spotty. The best chance of shower will be from about 1:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. Wednesday, and this certainly won’t be beneficial, and won’t make much of a dent in our long dry spell. Keep in mind Birmingham has recorded only 0.05″ of rain for the whole month, based on data from the airport.
Cooler air moves in during the day Wednesday with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. The rest of the week will be dry and pleasant with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
WEEKEND PEEK: Winds turn in to the south and there will be a slow increase in moisture, but at this point it looks like the weekend will be mostly rain-free with highs in the 70s.
The 00Z GFS is advertising a pretty decent rain event early next week on Monday and Tuesday with decent dynamics and moisture… we will watch the trends to see if this stays on the board in coming days.
LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: Seems like the idea of a pre-Halloween cold snap is off the table, as both the ECMWF and the GFS keep the trough axis to the west. However, this will open the door for one or two decent rain events before the end of the month, which is something we really need.
TROPICS: A disturbance is off the coast of Central America, and has some potential for slow development in coming days. With weak steering currents this one is expected to just hang around the same spot over the next five days. If by chance it gets a name, it will be called Richard. Another wave is over the Central Atlantic, about half-way between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and is not especially organized at this point.
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