According to computer analysis of surface observations (courtesy coolwx.com), the center of the low pressure area (T. D. Humberto) was just east of Monroe, LA at midnight, moving slowly NE. The center should move into central MS overnight, cross into west Alabama this morning, then start to turn ESE ahead of approaching cold front tomorrow as the low falls apart.
There is a lull in the rain in BHM now, but the rain should pick up again after 2 am. Over the past few hours, the heaviest rain has been to the NE of the center, from northern MS into AL, where southerly low level winds are maximizing warm air advection. With the track of the system moving NE overnight, expect the heaviest rainfall to slowly shift into north Alabama by mid-morning, with more scattered showers and storms south of I-20. Then, the rain should start to end as the front comes in tonight.
And, the cold front? It is from Chicago to near Kansas City now. Behind it in the northern plains, temps are in the low 40s, with wind chills below 30. Brr! And, yes, there is snow at a station in southern Canada! Saturday will be pleasant here with highs only near 80 and gusty winds. We should drop into the 50s as far south as BHM by Sunday morning.
