An incorrect hurricane forecast can kill hundreds, but an unnecessary evacuation can cost millions and put the population in harm’s way. That is the dilemma facing forecasters every time a major hurricane threatens a coastline.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Floyd back in 1999, many residents along the east coast were second guessing the huge evacuations that were ordered by officials as the hurricane approached the coast. Many claimed that the warnings for extremely dangerous Hurricane Floyd were overblown as a slightly weaker Hurricane Floyd skirted the east coast of Florida heading toward the Carolinas.
But forecasters were understandably unapologetic. The National Hurricane Center did expect the storm to turn northeast away from the coast, but could not guarantee it. Better safe than sorry led to the warnings of the storm’s catastrophic potential. As the storm turned toward the Carolinas, meteorologists warned that Floyd was almost as strong as 1989’s Hurricane Hugo, which battered the Charleston, South Carolina area.
Fortunately, Floyd’s winds dropped to 105 mph before it made landfall on the North Carolina coast near Cape Fear early on September 15, 1999.
But wind would not be the main problem. Rainfall of historic proportions caused the worst flooding in the history of North Carolina. Although the rainfall was well forecast, the ferocity of the flooding could not have been anticipated. Many people went to sleep that night and woke up with water filling their houses. Thirty six people died in North Carolina.
