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If you like Fall then I think you are going to like today. We are starting out with the coolest temperatures we’ve seen since late May – May 18th had a low of 48 at the Birmingham airport – and as I’m writing this the Birmingham airport was reporting 52 which might dip a bit lower before heading up today to a high of 82. Bet Vic Bell at Black Creek gets at least into the mid 40s this morning.
With a large Canadian high situated off to our northeast, we are going to stay dry well into the upcoming week with temperatures moderating a bit. I suspect that lows will gradually edge upward into the lower and mid 60s by Wednesday and Thursday with highs getting into the middle 80s.
The GFS is continuing to show an inverted trough with a weak upper level disturbance along the northern Gulf in the Thursday through Saturday time frame. This feature gradually works its way westward along the Gulf Coast allowing moisture return. I think the better chances of showers will come Friday and Saturday, but isolated showers may occur as early as Thursday with the increase in moisture off the Atlantic. We’ll be watching the timing of these changes.
Tropics are reasonably quiet. Ingrid is still the focus of attention as she struggles with exceptionally strong shear. The tropical depression is forecast to move northwestward and remain a minimal depression. The question will be whether Ingrid can survive the next two or three days. If she does, there is a possibility of re-strengthening as the shear relaxes. The official forecast favors dissipation, but we’ll have to wait and see.
In the longer term, another cold front with a shot of rain and more cold air is still in the forecast for the end of September. Today’s GFS model run is not quite as bullish on the cold air as the 558 height contour does not make it to Alabama as the GFS was indicating yesterday.
I hope that you’ve had a good weekend. I was able to help a good friend with getting a wireless network set up yesterday and that is the kind of thing that gives you a warm fuzzy. Plus, my football team won – FSU beat Colorado in a late game which I did not get to see. I hope you have a great Sunday. God bless.
-Brian-
