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A rather quiet weather pattern will continue through mid-week, and dry air means no significant chance of rain through Thursday.
The most interesting feature to watch is the disturbance just east of the Florida peninsula; most of the computer models take this system across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical storm cranks up (the name will be Jerry). The GFS seems to be the model of choice; it moves the system westward across the Gulf, south of Alabama, with the ultimate landfall somewhere over the upper Texas coast late in the weekend on Sunday. We note the NAM is farther to the north, and hints at some wind and rain potential for the central part of the Gulf coast. The Canadian, which brought the system across Jacksonville and into Alabama, seems more reasonable, and now has the system due south of Mobile by Sunday, much slower than the GFS.
I do believe that our potential “Jerry” can become a significant tropical cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico, so everyone around the horn from Brownsville to Cedar Key will need to keep a close watch on it.
If the GFS is correct and the thing goes into the upper Texas coast on Sunday, moisture levels will begin to really increase around here by early next week, and we can bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.
LONG RANGE: The GFS keeps the really chilly air bottled up in Canada through early October; looks like temperatures will run a tad above normal for the next couple of weeks. And, the tropics most likely will remain active with “home brew” systems that form close to home. Hopefully one or two of them will bring some decent rain to Alabama.
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A busy day ahead for me; I will be speaking to the students at Drew Middle School in Lincoln this morning, and then I will be in Jacksonville for a live weather shot on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 and 6:00. The products should be released on time… I will be working out of our mobile weather center, Storm Chaser 33/40. The afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be up by 3:30 this afternoon….
