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Sure looks like a tropical system (soon to be Jerry?) is getting its act together east of Miami and Fort Lauderdale. This is the primary feature to watch in coming days… it will move across the Florida peninsula, and emerge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico within 36 hours.
The GFS has shifted to the north on the 12Z run, and takes the system into Southeast Louisiana on Saturday. The NAM is very similar… this, of course, increases the risk of wind and rain for the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf coast by Friday. This northward adjustment is in response to a stronger upper trough coming out of the western U.S. showing up on the models.
The GFS takes the core of the moisture from the system, and moves it northward through Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and up into extreme West Tennessee and Missouri by Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, this potential tropical system will mean lots of uncertainty in our weekend forecast, but for now we still believe the primary impact of it will be west of Alabama.
AROUND HERE: We will maintain a dry forecast through Friday with highs in the 80s; we will drop into the cool 50s tomorrow morning, then lows return to the 60s on Thursday and Friday morning.
The weekend situation will all depend on “Jerry” and his behavior, but for most of the weekend looks dry. Moisture should increase one way or another early next week, and we will bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Just keep in touch with the weekend forecast in coming days since it could very well change.
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows the primary flow of colder air down into the western half of the nation for the next couple of weeks; around here ridging holds, and our best chance of significant rain will most likely come from the tropics, as opposed to a Polar cold front.
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I had a great time speaking to the 6th graders at Drew Middle School in Lincoln this morning… be watching for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00…. I am writing this from our mobile weather center, Storm Chaser 33/40… I will be live at 5:00 and 6:00 in Jacksonville today right in the middle of town in the square… then back in the studio for the late news at 10:00. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
