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The pressure has dropped to 1008 mb in our developing tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, west of Fort Myers. The models are not doing too well in their initialization of this feature in terms of pressure, and the fear remains that this could be stronger than some expect when it gets to the coast over the weekend. No, this should not develop into a major hurricane, but I do think it could become a minimal hurricane by Saturday. And, of course, this thing will really determine our weekend weather in Alabama. A Hurricane Hunter will be in the system later this morning and we will have a much better idea of what is going on.
All interests on the coast from Panama City westward to Morgan City, Louisiana will need to be ready for quick action should this thing go through rapid intensification.
TODAY/TOMORROW: No change in our thinking; today will be a bright, sunny day with a high in the mid 80s. Tomorrow, we should begin to see some high clouds from the tropical system, so we will call it partly sunny. Any showers should remain mainly over South Alabama, but one or two could show up over the eastern third of the state. We believe the best chance of showers tomorrow night for high school football games will be south of a line from Anniston to Montgomery to Mobile.
THE WEEKEND: The tropical system should make landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Buras, Louisiana over the weekend, which will put Alabama on the moist, east side of the system. There will be lots of wind and rain for coastal areas on Saturday, needless to say. We expect the primary rain shield on Saturday to remain generally south of Montgomery, with any showers over the northern half of the state rather scattered.
The chance of showers and storms will increase statewide on Sunday as the moisture flow continues, and the remnant circulation of Jerry moves up into Louisiana and Mississippi. Sunday should not be a total wash-out, however, but it should rain at times during the day.
NEXT WEEK: A tropical airmass, loaded with moisture, will remain over Alabama during the first half of next week, and with an upper trough approaching we will keep the chance of showers and storms going Monday through Wednesday. We could very well see some decent rain totals during these three days with good moisture and some dynamic lift.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is still showing a nice upper trough around October 4-6 with some potential for an invasion of chilly Canadian air, but the trough is not as deep on the 00Z run. All voodoo right now.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
