You can tell you are a real weather junky when the very first thing you do upon leaving the bed is head to the computer to look at everything you can find on what’s happening with what may be the future Jerry. Gads, I need a life!!
Some quick notes:
Location: Using radar, specifically the Tampa NWS WSR-88D, it appears that the center of the developing storm is located about 100 miles west of downtown Fort Myers, FL. Satellite data seems to support this position, too, but the satellite imagery is certainly NOT impressive. Center appears loose with no well defined center.
Motion: It is really hard to tell exactly what direction it is moving. This is always an issue with systems like this because you’ve got the broad circulation of the storm plus the translation of the storm. It looks like what little motion there is at this moment is westward, but it isn’t much according to radar animation.
Prognosis: Wind shear plus the position of the system over land has helped to keep development in check. However, the center of circulation is now over the warm water of the eastern Gulf and it appears that wind shear is very little to the west and northwest of the current position. All of this favors strenghening.
Models: It looks like the 06Z GFS and NAM model runs initialized the low position fairly well looking at the 6 hour forecast and what appears to be the position as I’ve noted. The two models arrive at different tracks with the NAM more toward Mobile and the GFS toward Southeast Louisiana.
Worries: The most recent storm, Humberto, underwent some significant strengthening before arriving at land. Had Humberto had more time over the Gulf, the results could have been much worse. The NAM is stronger than the GFS but still only a 1008 millibar low. My concern is that with shear down and a nice warm Gulf to draw energy from the potential is there for rapid strenthening.
Actions: I hope that everyone along the Central Gulf Coast from Panama City to Morgan City or perhaps even all the way to Houston need to be ready for quick response should the potential become reality. Keep in mind that intensity forecasting is one of the weaker spots in the science of meteorology. It’s not that we don’t want to be good at it, it’s just that it is extremely tough and we still don’t know all of the little things that go into rapid intensification.
JB says life goes no. I say, “Stay tuned!”
-Brian-
