I’m writing this around 3 pm and it sure would seem that “future Jerry” is still well in the future. Earlier discussions that I posted here stressed the positive elements that appeared favorable for the area of disturbed weather that crossed Florida early yesterday to become the next named storm. But the BIG assumption was that the center of that disturbed weather would stay in the Gulf. While the actual center stayed in the Gulf, that storm center has been much closer to land than I think most of us watching it expected. As James Spann so often chirps, “With tropical systems, expect the unexpected.”
And that is certainly true with this situation. This post is by no means my way of making excuses for my previous forecast. But as most meteorologists know, it is always a good idea to look at your forecasts, good and bad, and see what happened. I don’t spend as much time on the good forecasts as I do on the ones that don’t pan out.
I think that inspite of some pretty good factors favoring intensification in this situation, the hugging of the coast which put probably at least 40 percent of the circulation over land was a big factor fighting against intensification. And that is a very good thing for those living along the coast from Pensacola to Morgan City.
In the meantime, the coastal areas are getting some beneficial rains. Coastal offices, in fact NWS offices perhaps as far north as Atlanta, Birmingham, and Jackson will have to remain vigilant for the possibility of severe weather. Weak systems like this one can lull you and then spring several weak tornadoes when you least expect it.
So we’ll set our sights on watching the current situation and put the name “Jerry” back on the shelf for another day.
-Brian-
