MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND SRN AL…WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 681…
VALID 220157Z – 220330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 681 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD NWWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL AL. ORGANIZATION AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO CONTINUE A
TORNADO THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
MOBILE AL AND DISTINCT SPIRAL BANDING IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS SE
AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOWS A
POCKET OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 2.25 INCHES JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTING RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH
FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE NWWD
INTO CNTRL AND WRN AL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL CONFLUENCE BANDS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS SE AL APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND
THESE RAINBANDS SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 09/22/2007
