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There is an axis of heat from Orlando to Chicago; in this general area temperatures are running about 10 degrees above normal. At 2:00, Birmingham was at 91 degrees with a dewpoint of 71, making for a heat index of 97. Pretty oppressive for the first full day of fall.
But, here is the other side of the story… Raynolds Pass, Montana is at 34 degrees; West Yellowstone, Wyoming reports 36. Snow is falling in the northern Rockies, and the weather is more like winter than fall.
AROUND HERE: We do note a few widely scattered showers over Alabama, mainly over the western half of the state, in this hot, oppressive air. Drier air working into the state from the east should shut off all showers tomorrow, and the weather will stay very toasty for September, with a high around 90 degrees in most spots.
On Wednesday, we will mention a few isolated showers or storms as moisture levels begin to increase, but those showers on Wednesday should be few and far between.
THURSDAY: A decent Polar front will move through here on Thursday, helping to bring a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms. We do note the 12Z run of the GFS does not show as much upper support for that front, compared to the 00Z run (the run you saw on the morning Weather Xtreme video), but it still should have enough southward push to reach South Alabama by Thursday night or early Friday.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z run has backed off on the amount of cool air that moves into Alabama, based on the lack of upper air support for the front, and even brings moisture back into parts of the state over the weekend, hinting at some risk of showers or storms. For now, I won’t change our weekend forecast, which shows sunny pleasant days and fair cool nights Friday through Sunday. We will watch the 18Z and the 00Z run, and they continue the trend of the 12Z run, we will begin to phase in the changes.
LONG RANGE: No sign of major shot of Polar air into Alabama through mid-October; looks like the tropics will be the big story. Lots going on now…
IN THE TROPICS: I suggest that you watch the Weather Xtreme video for the satellite images and graphics on all of these systems. Convection continues in the Gulf of Mexico; the disturbed area of weather is drifting slowly to the west, and even if a tropical cyclone forms we don’t expect a direct impact on our weather at this point. No sign of any low level circulation or organization at this point.
A wave is coming through the Windward Islands this afternoon; this one will stay south of Puerto Rico, and wind up somewhere close to Jamaica in about 4 to 5 days, possibly as a tropical storm or hurricane.
Another really good looking wave is southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic; this one also has the chance to become a tropical storm within the next 36 hours as it moves to the west/northwest. Too early to determine if this will recurve into the open Atlantic, or become a threat to the U.S. mainland.
Jerry, now a depression in the North Atlantic, is falling apart as it merges with a larger, non-tropical circulation.
We should note our next hurricane names are Karen, Lorenzo, and Melissa.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. The new episode we record tonight should be available by midnight or so. We will feature an interview this week with Jim Stefkovich, the Meteorologist In Charge of the NWS/Birmingham office concerning the new polygon warnings.
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I sure enjoyed speaking to the big group assembled down in Fayetteville this morning for a big golf outing to benefit the Wellborn Cabinet Children’s Foundation Fund, which provides support for wonderful organizations like the Alabama Baptist Children’s Homes and Family Ministries, and the Big Oak Ranch. It was also good to see my pal John Croyle…. he just flew back to Alabama last night after seeing his son, Brodie, and the Kansas City Chiefs game yesterday in Kansas City. John told me he wants to be there for Brodie’s first professional touchdown pass. What a great dad.
The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
