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You bet we can have some pretty mean September heat waves… the hottest temperature on record in Alabama was recorded on September 5, 1925, with the high in Centreville was 112. Today’s record high in Birmingham is 97, set in 1921. The heat here during the decades of the 1920s and 1930s was simply incredible, so it could be worse!
We figure we will reach the 89 to 93 degree range today in most spots with a good supply of sunshine. I guess you really can’t rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon during the heat of the day, but any that do form should be near the Mississippi border, and few and far between.
A few isolated showers or storms could show up tomorrow afternoon as moisture levels increase a bit, but we will have to wait until Thursday afternoon, or maybe even Thursday night before a good rain event returns. A cold front will bring a nice round of showers and thunderstorms then, with average rain amounts of one-half inch. Of course, some spots will see more, some will see less due to the convective nature of the precipitation. At this time, the 00Z GFS hints our best chance of rain will come from about 3:00 Thursday afternoon through midnight Thursday night.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 00Z run of the GFS is back on the dry air bandwagon, which jives up nicely with our ongoing forecast over on the seven day page. Our weather Friday through Sunday will feature lots of sunshine on a daily basis, with pleasant days and cool nights. The GFS now shows 60 for Birmingham early Saturday morning; I am sure there will be plenty of communities that reach the 50s. Looks like great weather for the high school football games Friday night, and the college games in the state on Saturday. Yeah, I know, both Alabama and Auburn are down in Florida… at first glance it looks like there will be a chance of rain at both Gainesville and Jacksonville. We will have the specific football forecasts a little later in the week, but rain could very well be an issue at both game sites.
LONG RANGE: The really chill air remains bottled up in Canada and the northern U.S. for the next two weeks, so instead of looking to the north, we better watch developments to the south as the tropics are really coming alive…
TOPIC: TROPICS… Lets break them down one at a time. I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video so you can see all of the satellite images and graphics that go with these storms.
JERRY: This is a tropical storm in the North Atlantic; no threat to land. It will become extra-tropical very soon as it merges with a larger circulation.
KAREN: A new tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. It should turn more to the north later this week in response to a weakness in the ridge north of the system. And, with increasing shear in the path of this one, the NHC keeps it below hurricane strength for the next five days. There is an increasing chance that this storm will recurve over the open Atlantic, without being a threat to land, but that is not carved in stone just yet.
CARIBBEAN: Our wave in the eastern Caribbean doesn’t look very healthy this morning; it is void of deep convection for now. The models are now bringing this wave right over Puerto Rico, Hispanolia, and Cuba in coming days, which means it will be tough for serious organization to happen due to the interaction with land.
GULF OF MEXICO: A disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a chance (and a good chance at that) to become a tropical depression later this morning, but it is headed toward the Mexican coast, and is no threat to the U.S. mainland at this time. We also not a new flare of convection around the Bahamas, east of Miami… this one has a chance to become better organized as well. Quite a smorgasbord out there across the Atlantic basin.
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After a stop at Inverness Elementary today, I will be in the office by early afternoon and the next edition of the Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30!
