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Today will be another summer-like day across Alabama with a high between 87 and 91 degrees for most places. A few isolated showers or storms could fire up this afternoon, but like yesterday most neighborhoods will remain dry.
Our cold front to the northwest is still on schedule to pass through here tomorrow night, and we will bring in a chance of showers and storms ahead of the front. Still looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through midnight tomorrow night. And, the models continue to trend drier. Looks like we will be really lucky now to get one-half inch… some models suggest the rain total here will be under a quarter of an inch. Not good… the rain deficit for the year continues to increase; the deficiency at Tuscaloosa is up to 24.60″.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Air that is slightly cooler, but much drier will arrive just in time for these three days. Highs will remain in the mid 80s, but nights will be much cooler; the coolest morning will be Saturday morning when we will drop into the 56 to 63 degree range. The humidity will be low as well making for a very nice weekend statewide.
NEXT WEEK: At first glance it looks like some chance of showers and storms will return by the middle of next week (Wednesday or Thursday), but the main wave action remains north of the state, and still no sign of any invasion of chilly Polar air for the next 10 to 15 days.
We do note the 00Z run of the GFS builds a massive ridge over the Pacific coast, up to Alaska around October 11, and delivers the coldest air so far this season into the northern U.S., moving in our general direction. But, we all know that is nothing more than voodoo at this point.
TROPICS: You need to buy a program to keep up with all of the action in the tropics, but there is nothing threatening the Central Gulf coast for the next five days. Watch the video for the graphics and maps that go along with these systems…
KAREN: Well out in the Atlantic; this one will be forced northward during the next few days, and most systems that behave in this fashion wind up recurving out into the open Atlantic. Not all of them, but most of them.
TD 13: This one, in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, is expected to move into the Mexican Gulf coast late Friday night as a tropical storm. No threat to the U.S. mainland.
FLORIDA/BAHAMAS: This is an interesting system that will move northeast, most likely as some kind of hybrid system, and has the potential to create windy conditions along the east coast of the U.S. in coming days, but no threat to Alabama.
CARIBBEAN: A tropical wave will move over Hispanolia and Cuba in coming days, but will have a hard time developing due to the interaction with land, and a hostile upper air wind pattern.
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I am off to Winfield this morning for a weather program up in Marion County… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon.
