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The Atlantic basin is exploding with activity… before we dive into that, lets take a look at…
THE ALABAMA STORY: The models continue to trend drier with the front tomorrow night. Still looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. until midnight tomorrow, but average amounts of only a quarter of an inch look likely at this point. Some communities could miss the showers completely, and a few lucky spots could see up to one-half inch of rain. This sure doesn’t look like a beneficial rain event at this time.
The weather still looks excellent Friday through Sunday, with sunny warm days, clear cool nights, and low humidity levels. The 12Z GFS has come in with 57 degrees for Birmingham early Saturday morning… some of the cooler valleys could be close to 50 degrees at daybreak Saturday.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z run of the GFS suggests our next decent chance of rain will come around Thursday of next week.
WILD IN THE TROPICS: I really recommend you watch the video since so much is going on out there… and at this point we have more questions than answers concerning the future of some of these systems…
KAREN: This tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic looks better organized, and seems to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane. The models have trended a little to the left, and the NHC track remains greatly unchanged. NHC has Karen well to the southeast of Bermuda early next week. Often, storms in that region recurve into the open Atlantic, but there are hints in global models of high pressure building to the north of Karen, which would actually bend this thing back toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. This system has the potential to be out there for a long time, and the ultimate destination is still very much up in the air.
TD13: Looks like this will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Lorenzo later this afternoon… the system, now in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, will drift toward the Mexican coast, with landfall Friday morning well to the south of Brownsville, Texas. No threat to the Central Gulf coast.
FLORIDA/BAHAMAS: Convection persists in the general area from Miami to Nassau. This has the potential to become a pretty intense hybrid type storm, and possibly a warm core tropical storm, within the next 24 hours as it moves to the northeast. Almost all of the models want to bend this thing back toward the Atlantic coast in about 3 to 5 days. This is in response to the same ridging that could bend Karen back to the west.
CARIBBEAN: A tropical wave is moving through the Northeast Caribbean this afternoon… the models are trending northward, and now take this thing through the Bahamas during the next three days. There is some chance this could become better organized by the weekend.
EAST ATLANTIC: And, the African wave train is cranking out the hits, and a wave in the far eastern Atlantic looks well organized and could become a tropical depression in coming days.
Again, watch the video for the graphics on all of these systems…
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