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Yesterday, the forecast for the next week looked rather uncomplicated and pretty straightforward. Today, however, we have a bit of a forecast dilemma to deal with – but that won’t come into play at least until the middle or latter part of the week.
So for now, today and the next several days, the forecast is pretty straightforward with dry weather, an abundance of sun, afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s, and morning lows that are slowly creeping toward the lower 60s.
The forecast picture becomes complicated around Wednesday due to a weak tropical disturbance located over the Bahamas this morning. There are no signs of any development there at this moment, however, slow development of this disturbance is possible over the next several days. One problem for it, of course, is that it has to move across Florida. This should keep development in check until it gets into the Gulf off the west coast of Florida. By Wednesday the disturbance is in the eastern Gulf and that’s where things really get interesting. The GFS, normally pretty bullish on tropical systems, brings the disturbance into the Central Gulf and washes it out. The NAM, on the otherhand, brings it into the Northeast Gulf and drops the pressure to 996 millibars. So the weather we have Thursday/Friday is going to depend on what actually happens to this system. Stay tuned on this one.
The GFS does bring moisture into Central Alabama without a storm so the end of the week could see scattered showers with temperatures above typical seasonal values for early October.
In the tropics, besides the weak disturbance in the Bahamas that we’ll be watching, Karen has lost out to the shear and Melissa is having trouble, too. Karen is no longer much of anything while Melissa is expected to stay way out in the Atlantic fighting her own shear issues.
Longer range predictions do not hold much in the way of changes for Central Alabama. By the middle of October we may see an upper trough strong enough to drag a weak front into the Southeast, but currently I see no signs of any cold weather for us.
James Spann will return bright and early tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. Don’t forget to mark your calendars for the Storm Alert Xtreme on November 10th where we go through training in storm spotting. It will be at the BJCC sponsored by the 2008 International Auto Show and the Birmingham Automobile Dealers Association. I hope that you have a good Sunday and a great upcoming week. God bless.
-Brian-
