An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes… You now have the option to watch the video full screen, and you can even get code to embed the video in your own web site!
Sure looks like our fall severe weather season is kicking off early this year… we have two threats on the board during the next seven days. Plenty to discuss today…
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: We will continue to mention a chance scattered showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow, but the best rain coverage will be down over South Alabama in response to a fetch of very deep tropical moisture moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. We should note that the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico bears watching, but in our opinion it most likely won’t develop into a tropical storm. One way or another, however, the moisture will greatly impact at least the southern half of Alabama. We do expect rain and storms to become more widespread tomorrow night statewide.
To the west, there will be a significant chance of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes tomorrow over the eastern half of Oklahoma and Kansas, with severe weather possible as far south as Dallas/Fort Worth, and as far north as St. Louis and Omaha.
THURSDAY: The major upper trough approaches Alabama, and with increasing dynamics and impressive instability, severe thunderstorms will most likely be a big issue here late Thursday and Thursday night. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Thursday, and they indicate they could upgrade the risk to moderate on tomorrow morning’s update. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see all of the graphics associated with the Thursday event… the synoptic scale sure favors severe weather, but we won’t know about the mesoscale (small scale) stuff until early Thursday morning. Forecast helicity values would suggest there will be a chance of a few tornadoes across Alabama on Thursday as well.
It looks like the rain and storms tomorrow night will taper off early Thursday morning, with the sky becoming partly sunny during the day as dry air in the mid levels moves in from the west. Then, the strong to severe storms will develop late tomorrow and tomorrow night in advance of the surface front. For now, it looks like our greatest chance of severe storms Thursday will be generally from 3:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight.
The good news is that some beneficial rain will be possible; rain totals of one inch are likely, with isolated amounts over two inches. The 12Z GFS extraction shows 1.03″ for Birmingham. We will take every drop.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: No rain during these three days; sunny warm afternoons and clear, cool nights will headline the forecast. Looks like a high around 80 on Friday, with mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS sure paints an interesting picture, but I would really like to get the Thursday system out of here before we focus on next week. Having said that, the 12Z GFS shows a very deep, dynamic upper trough approaching Alabama with a chance of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain on Monday. Then, a deep upper low closes off just north of here, which would keep us cool and a bit unsettled on Tuesday and Wednesday. But, confidence in any specific solution is rather low right now. Lets talk about next week on Friday and we can be much more specific.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. On the new show we recorded last night, David Black scored an interview with Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, one of the great minds in atmospheric science. Dr. Gray talks about Al Gore and his “peace” prize, and the state of the 2007 hurricane season. Very interesting show.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I had a wonderful trip to Fayette this morning… I note that some fall colors are beginning to show up despite the drought. I drove back through Berry, Oakman, and Parrish. I will try to post some shots tonight from the trip. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
