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TODAY/TONIGHT: Dewpoints are running generally in the mid 60s across the northern half of Alabama this morning with a low level southeast flow. Moisture will continue to increase during the day today, and we will continue the risk of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look for an increase in rain and storms tonight, with potential for one inch of rain between 6:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. We don’t expect any severe weather here tonight, but to the west SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for the eastern half of Oklahoma and much of Arkansas. A tornado watch is up early this morning for parts of the Texas panhandle and West Oklahoma ahead of the upper trough moving out of the Rockies.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Drier air in the mid levels will move in here tomorrow morning, so we figure the sky will become partly sunny during the day. While a few scattered showers and storms are possible, it looks like a decent part of the day tomorrow will be dry, but very humid and breezy. Then, the final round of storms will roll through Alabama tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Friday. The models are a little slower with that batch of storms; even some hint they might come during the midnight to 6:00 a.m. time frame Friday. We will probably begin to make that adjustment in our forecast later today; so if you have something outdoors planned for tomorrow, you might be in pretty good shape with only a few scattered showers around.
SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night for areas well to the north of Alabama, including cities like Chicago and Indianapolis. A slight risk extends southward to cover most of Alabama.
For now, we will indicate the best chance of severe storms from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Friday. Often during that time, instead of dealing with discreet supercells with a tornado threat, the whole things rolls over into a long line of severe storms with damaging wind becoming the primary threat.
Here are some severe weather parameters from the NAM for late tomorrow night:
Surface based CAPE 1194 j/kg
0 to 3 km helicity 204
SWEAT INDEX 376
850 mb wind speed 38 knots
500 mb wind speed 54 knots
We will have a much better idea tomorrow morning as the system will be staring us in the face by then.
Looks like we will be burning the midnight oil in the weather office tomorrow night. The sky will clear quickly Friday morning, with sunshine in full force by Friday afternoon. The sky will be clear Friday night during the high school football games.
THE WEEKEND: No weather issues at all; sunny warm days and clear cool nights Saturday and Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Pure model madness rules. The 00Z GFS is coming in with the upper trough more to the west on Monday, which would keep the main band of rain and storms west of Alabama. Then, it shows a cut-off upper low over Kansas and Nebraska, and keeps a chance of rain going over Alabama Tuesday through Thursday. On the other hand, the European shows the upper low over Arizona and New Mexico, and keeps a warm ridge over Alabama which would mean dry and warm weather for the first half of the week. You know my story; lets get the system out of here on Friday, and then we can focus on next week.
STORM ALERT XTREME: We hope to see you on Saturday, November 10 at the BJCC for our annual severe storm training session. Once again this year, the Alabama International Auto Show is a sponsor of Storm Alert XTREME, and it will be held at the BJCC. This is your chance to learn more about Alabama weather, and to be trained as a storm spotter. ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Brian Peters, long time WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) for the National Weather Service in Birmingham, will teach a basic and advanced course on spotting small scale features within thunderstorms that are very important to meteorologists. Read more about Storm Alert XTREME here.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University is our guest this week; he talks about Al Gore and the 2007 hurricane season. A very interesting show.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
