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While we are enjoying a pretty quiet day here in Alabama, storms are really cranking up to the west. The NWS in Shreveport just issued a tornado warning for Bossier and Webster Parishes in Northwest Louisiana… tornado watches cover much of this region, and SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe storms for the rest of the afternoon and tonight across most of Arkansas and parts of the adjacent states.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Showers and storms are developing right now over parts of Southwest Alabama, and we expect the storms to the west to move in here late tonight, mostly after midnight. They should weaken as they move into Alabama (as the storms get away from the best dynamics), and for now we don’t expect a major problem with severe weather. Looks like the main chance of rain and storms will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.
Then, tomorrow afternoon, as drier air in the mid levels works in here from the west, we expect the sky to become partly sunny for a few hours. This will help to make the air more unstable, and then another round of storms is likely tomorrow night. That second round of storms tomorrow night is when severe weather will become a problem here; SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms, with a moderate risk to the north (from the northern part of Kentucky northward to Wisconsin and Michigan).
Watch the afternoon Weather Xtreme video and you can see the forecast STP values (significant tornado parameter) across the nation tomorrow night, the numbers are quite high from North Alabama northward into Tennessee and Kentucky. With expected CAPE values over 1200 j/kg, and rather high 0 to 1 km shear values, there will be some risk of rotating thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. Timing will be a key factor; if the storms hold off until late tomorrow night, after midnight, then we might be dealing with just one long line of storms with the primary threat coming from straight line winds. But, if the storms form earlier, a few supercells will be possible with isolated tornadoes.
For now, we will highlight the primary severe weather risk from about 9:00 tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Friday. Looks like the midnight oil will be burning in the weather office.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky will clear quickly Friday morning, and the weekend will be dry featuring sunny warm days and clear cool nights.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is back on the idea of a major upper trough sweeping through here Monday, with a very healthy round of showers and storms, followed by sharply cooler air on Tuesday and Wednesday. Remember, we have complete model madness next week and any one specific solution is not to be trusted. But, I do like the GFS idea (as opposed to the ECMWF) for now.
LONG RANGE: For you tropical fans, the 12Z GFS cranks up a tropical storm in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico on October 29, which moves northeast ahead of a major upper trough. All voodoo for now.
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The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. will provide updates on developments to the west through the rest of the afternoon and tonight.
