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THE ALABAMA WEATHER SITUATION: Scroll down for Tim Coleman’s excellent post on the severe weather potential for the next 24 hours. As I write this during the early morning hours, we have a few showers around here, but quite frankly overnight rain was a little disappointing (we have heard that before during the last 6 months!). A large mass of storms over South Alabama really cut us off; it disrupted the good inflow and kept the showers over the northern half of the state rather scattered overnight. The showers should slowly die down during the next 2 to 3 hours, and by midday much of the state should be dry.
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT: The best instability and shear remains west of Alabama through the day, but the sun we expect this afternoon will certainly help to make the air more unstable, and will set the state for some active weather tonight. I guess you can’t rule out the chance of a few isolated severe storms at some point late this afternoon, but the best chance of severe weather will hold off until tonight. Any storms that form during the evening hours will have the potential for strong winds and an isolated tornado, then a squall line should move through after midnight with the potential for damaging straight line winds.
Bottom line is that you need to be in a position to hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed late today and tonight. Needless to say, we will keep the blog updated frequently with fresh information.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Any lingering showers will end early tomorrow, and the sky will clear quickly as drier air works in from the west. The weekend will feature sunny warm days and clear cool nights.
NEXT WEEK: Still model madness; the GFS brings another very dynamic upper trough through here Monday with rain and strong to severe storms, while the European model keeps the trough to the west and keeps Alabama sunny and warm. In fact, the Euro never moves the through through here; it retrogrades the system into a cut-off low over Arizona by mid-week. The GFS solution would mean rain and storms Monday, followed by much cooler air by Tuesday and Wednesday. We will lean toward the GFS, but lets get tonight’s system out of the way, and we can focus on next week in our discussions here tomorrow.
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I am headed out to Trussville this morning to speak with the kids at Paine Primary School… then back into the office as we get ready for an active night. I should be able to crank out another Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 or so this afternoon, and J.B. will have running updates through the day…
