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Looking good for rain! Not today, of course, as we get in another fine October day with some pretty substantial warmth. I would expect to see afternoon high temperatures in the middle 80s with a few spots possibly nudging into the upper 80s under plenty of sunshine. These are really close to records – record high for today for Birmingham is 89. But change is on the way – and it looks like a BIG change in two ways.
It would appear that the combination of a strong upper level trough blasting out of the southern Rockies and becoming a closed low plus a good deal of Gulf moisture will finally bring Alabama and the Southeast US a significant rain event. The HPC guys are forecasting rainfall amounts of nearly 6 and a quarter inches of rain centered on Hamilton, AL. Much of northern and Central Alabama is outlooked for 2 to 4 inches of rain. I expect most of the rain to come in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. And besides the wonderful prospects of significant rain, we could see a day on Tuesday that will be downright chilly. The combination of rain and clouds could keep Central Alabama in the 50s all day. This will come as a bit of a shock for some since those temperatures could be 30 degrees colder than our highs today.
The closed low hovers around Alabama through Thursday before it gets a nice kick from an upstream trough moving across Canada. Clouds and some unsettled weather will remain possible into the end of the week. That kicker on Thursday should send the trough off to the northeast allowing us to dry out for next weekend. And it looks like temperatures will be quite seasonal with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s.
Interesting observation this morning on the GFS graphic products versus the MOS guidance. As I noted in the video, the GFS graphics indicate the possibility of unsettled weather with some rain on Thursday. With a closed upper low in our vicinity that solution looks pretty good. But the number guidance, the MOS (Model Output Statistics), drops the probability of rain to zero. While certainly not a major dilemma, it will be interesting to see how the scenario unfolds. By Thursday we may not care as long as we get a really good soaking on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropics remain quiet and are expected to stay that way for the next several days.
The longer range forecasts continue to project a dry, mild Halloween. Another trough is forecast to develop toward the end of the cycle with some interesting implications for moisture coming at us from the Atlantic. But that’s way out there so we’ll wait on that.
I had a great time in Winterboro yesterday at the community day sponsored by the volunteer fire department. Great barbecue and lots of folks to chat with. James Spann will be back in here tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a wonderful Sunday. God bless.
-Brian-
