The morning runs of our main forecast models are in.
There has been a disappointing shift westward with our upper low, particularly on the GFS. This would mean a drier forecast if it materializes. We will just have to take a wait and see approach.
The morning quantitative precipitation forecast from the HPC called for a huge area of 2.5-5 inch rainfall amounts over the northwestern two-thirds of the state between now and Friday, with a bullseye of 5.2 inches near Huntsville. Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden would see about 4 inches of rain with this forecast, with greater amounts northwest of this line and lesser amounts southeast of it.
I am not changing my forecast rationale based on the model flip flop. A large area is going to get widespread heavy rainfall amounts. Question is, will it be Mississippi or Alabama. Hopefully there will be plenty for everyone, but we need it so desperately here in Alabama.
New forecast package out before 2. Have a great Sunday afternoon. You’ll notice the warmth and increasing southeast winds. A red flag warning is in effect, and outdoor burning should be avoided.
