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It will be very interesting to see how the weather unfolds here in coming days. Remember, we are dealing with an intense, cold core upper low… weatherman’s woe. These things can bring everything from heavy rain and severe storms, to dry slots with sunshine, and unusual dynamic cooling with hail and even snow flakes. Computer models don’t handle them very well, and I can tell you to expect some surprises through mid-week. But, yes, there is potential for some beneficial rain here.
The guys at HPC (the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are suggesting rain totals of 5 to 7 inches in the general area from Nashville to New Orleans, including much of North and West Alabama. I am not sure we get that much rain, but amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely. The 12Z run of the GFS shows 3.13″ for Birmingham, but the 12Z NAM prints 2.52″. Bring it on.
We do note SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the general area from Tuscaloosa to Mobile, but the lack of serious instability will probably prevent a major severe weather problem; the most unstable air is back to the west over part of Mississippi and Central Louisiana.
Trying to tell you exactly when the rain will start and stop is almost impossible, but there will be periods of rain all the way through Friday. The 12Z GFS hints at some dry slotting on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers are still possible on those days. A healthy band of showers and storms should roll through here on Friday before drier air returns Friday night.
Temperatures have the potential to be downright chilly is the GFS is correct; we will hold in the 60s all day tomorrow, and then have a hard time getting out of the 50s on Wednesday if the upper low is as close as the GFS suggests. The long, hot summer is definitely over.
THE WEEKEND: The weekend still looks dry with mostly sunny mild days and clear cool nights. Great weather for football, fall festivals, or anything else outdoors.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS hinting at potential cold shots for Alabama in the October 31-November 6 time frame… in fact that period looks really cold for the northern U.S., with that cold air dipping into the Deep South from time to time.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Our show tonight will feature Tampa, Florida weather legend Roy Leep… we hope to have it posted by 10:00 or so.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m…. J.B. will keep the blog fresh with updates on the rain situation.
