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Our typical Spring preview that comes in late January or early February is underway, but do not put away those jackets and winter coats just yet! More cold is definitely on the way. For today, however, enjoy the opportunity to get outside with some warm weather as highs reach well into the 60s across Central Alabama. The Birmingham Airport, by the way, hit 62 yesterday which is only the second 60-degree high in Central Alabama in all of January.
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and into the overnight hours as a short wave zips quickly across the southern tier of the US. Light rain is likely to spread across the state from west to east on Sunday – it looks like much of Central Alabama will be dry to start the day, but rain should begin for most locations by afternoon. The short wave zips by quickly providing a nice shot of rain which should taper off Monday morning with a break in the rain for Monday afternoon.
But as the big trough moves toward us on Tuesday we’ll see rain return as a strong surface low develops to our west. In fact, while it is too early to tell the details, it certainly appears likely that we could see a round of severe weather into Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the surface low moves through West Tennessee. Based on the low position on the GFS, it should put us in the warm sector with some reasonably good dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms. Whether we do see a severe weather threat or not will depend on the details in the development of the mesoscale, so we’ll be watching this system with more information as we get closer to the event.
Rainfall is likely to total 1 to 2 inches for many locations in this next event. The first round of rain will be light with less than half an inch for most. The convective nature of the second round of rain on Tuesday means some variability to rainfall but potential for as much as 2 inches in the stronger storms.
The major trough re-establishes the long wave position over the eastern US on Wednesday and Thursday which opens the way to putting us back into the deep freeze. Once again we’ll be seeing lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.
We stay cold into next weekend with some slight moderation as temperatures by Saturday return to more seasonal values.
Further into the future, aka voodoo country, shows the long wave trough re-established over the eastern half of the country with weather systems around the 8th and the 14th. Each of these could pose some winter weather threat for the southern US but no specific forecast this far out – just something to talk about!
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I’m in Troy this weekend for the Pike Piddlers Storytelling Festival. Headed over to the campus for Troy University in just a little while to take in the first round of storytelling. They’ve got a great lineup of nationally recognized storytellers including one of my favorites, Donald Davis. Enjoy our spring-ish day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
