Tropical Depression 16 is getting quite impressive on satellite this morning.
It is located 220 miles SW of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
The latest pass of the QuikScat satellite did not find tropical storm force winds, but the Air Force plane that is enroute will, I believe, based on the satellite photo.
Here is the output of the various track forecast models.
Here is the official track as predicted by the NHC.
The track is uncertain and is based on a weakness developing north of the storm in the next 36 hours. If that does not open up, it could meander weatward to the south of Cuba for the next 4 to 5 days.
The intensity forecast is dependent on the track. A quick recurvature might still allow it to become a hurricane, albeit a weaker one. A more southerly track could result in a major hurricane. A track close to Cuba could disrupt the circulation over the mounatinous terrain.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for SW Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches are flying for Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
One of the biggest threats from this system, as with any October Caribbean storm is heavy rain. Rains of up to a foot will cause disastrous mudslides and flooding across Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica.
