Arctic air in November? It has happened before, and it looks like it will happen again, starting next week.
It dropped to 21 degrees on November 5, 1991, and then snow flurries occurred on Nov. 8. In 2000, 5 cold fronts came in during November, with highs only in the 30s on the day of the Iron Bowl.
The models have been fairly consistent lately in developing a deep trough over the eastern U.S. next week, and a strong cold front going through Alabama on Tuesday. The GFS shows temps dropping below freezing Tuesday night and Wednesday night, and that model is actually a little more conservative with the cold air than the European or the Canadian. It’s still 5 days out, but with the models becoming consistent with each other run-to-run, it’s likely. Get ready for a potential freeze over the northern half of Alabama.
Will this airmass be cold, or will it be SIGNIFICANTLY cold? It’s too early to tell. Dry soil does have a lower heat content than wet soil, so a hard freeze (ie., lows well into the 20s), at least at ground level, is more likely with the drought. The other day, some spots had frost on the ground with a measured temperature (at the official height of 6 feet) of 40 degrees.
Hey, if it gets into the 20s next week…just think of New England, the east coast of Canada and southern Greenland, where the hurricane will bring very high wind gusts, but temperatures will be very cold. Imagine the wind chill on Mt. Washington by Saturday night! I predict at least zero.
