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It is beginning to look like we actually have a chance of one-half inch of rain with a strong cold front passing through here Wednesday night. Prior to that, a few widely scattered showers might show up over the northern quarter of Alabama late tomorrow or tomorrow night with a weak short wave, but amounts should be pretty light and spotty.
The main window for showers and storms with our mid-week front will come from about 6:00 p.m. Wednesday through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. The NAM model extraction shows 0.66″ for Birmingham… that might be a little aggressive, but all of the models are a little wetter on the 12Z runs.
The rain will sweep out of here during the pre-dawn hours Thursday… the sky becomes sunny, and a brisk north wind will bring in much cooler air. We will have a hard time getting out of the 50s on Thursday, even with sunshine returning in full supply. Then, by Friday morning, we will drop well down in the 30s with a good chance of frost, and a freeze for the colder valleys and protected areas.
WEEKEND PEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps a large part of the weekend dry; it holds off the next chance of showers and storms until Monday of next week with the next short wave. Confidence in the weekend forecast is pretty low due to serious run to run inconsistency. Looks like highs over the weekend will be somewhere between 65 and 70.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a major storm system around the middle part of next week, which would bring rain and thunderstorms to Alabama on Wednesday, and snow in the general area from St. Louis to Indianapolis to Cleveland. This could be a pretty big issue for holiday travelers… but we are still beyond seven days, so the system is in voodoo land.
If you like voodoo, the 12Z GFS brings another strong system in here the Saturday after Thanksgiving, followed by the coldest air so far this season.
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