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Nice to see a little action on the radar this afternoon… we have a band of showers and storms over the Tennessee Valley as I write this; more than likely all of that will remain north of U.S. 278, where lift and instability values are better.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: A much better chance for showers and storms statewide is still ahead for tomorrow night as a sharp cold front rolls through. It still looks like the primary window for that will come from about 9:00 tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. Still no drought buster; the NAM prints 0.24″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.37″.
We also note that SPC has introduced a slight risk of severe storms late tomorrow from around Texarkana, Arkansas to Muscle Shoals. More than likely the storms will weaken as they move through here tomorrow night as the air will be more stable by then.
Thursday will be a windy and much cooler day, despite the return of sunshine in full supply. The models continue to trend colder; the NAM shows a high of only 55 for Birmingham, while the GFS is at 58. That is about 20 degrees colder than the mild readings we are enjoying today. Then, we will be close to freezing by Friday morning with widespread frost likely. Friday will be another sunny and cool day.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly sunny with a high in the mid 60s. Then, on Sunday, moisture will increase in advance of a short wave, and it looks like there will be a window for showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This doesn’t look like a major rain producer, however, with limited moisture.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The GFS still shows a big time long upper trough impacting the nation by the middle of next week. For now, the weather here looks dry on Monday and Tuesday, but we will bring in a good chance of showers and strong storms on Wednesday in advance of the big trough. Too early to determine if severe weather will be possible, but it sure isn’t out of the question. Then, the coldest air so far this season rolls in here on Thanksgiving Day. The GFS is suggesting a high only in the 30s for the northern quarter of Alabama on Thanksgiving, with a chance of scattered snow flurries over Tennessee. Once again, we are dipping our toe in voodoo here; lets get to Thursday of this week before we really call that a forecast. No doubt, the idea is correct, but details are impossible to nail down so far in advance.
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I sure enjoyed the drive up to Stowers Hill Intermediate School today… the kids were great as always. Be looking for them on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 today; the drive up to Attalla has been a pre-Thanksgiving tradition for many years. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
