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Not much change in our thinking for the next four days, but next week remains problematic. First, the easy part…
Still looks like the main window for showers and storms with the front will come from about 9:00 tonight through 6:00 tomorrow morning. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in the area from Texarkana to Muscle Shoals, but as the storms move down into this part of Alabama, the air will be more stable and I really don’t expect a major problem with severe storms, Remember, the sun goes down at 4:50 in the afternoon this time of the year.
The QPF numbers (quantitative precipitation forecast) have come up on the 00Z model runs… the NAM is now printing .96″ for Birmingham, but the GFS remains drier with .37″. Considering our luck with rain lately, and the expected fast movement of the line, I have to side the the GFS.
A COLDER DAY: The sky becomes sunny tomorrow, and a brisk north wind will usher in much colder air. We won’t get out of the 50s despite the sun, and by daybreak Friday will be right around the freezing mark. Friday will be another dry and cool day with ample sunshine.
Saturday will be fine day for football… lots of sunshine and a comfortable afternoon after a cold morning. The high will be in the mid 60s. Beyond Saturday, things get muddy.
A weak short wave will bring some risk of showers Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, or maybe even Monday, but this is a minor feature and rain amounts, if any, will be light and spotty.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The 00Z GFS still shows a major weather system that will impact much of the nation next week, but the feature is much farther to the west. Instead of lining up near the Mississippi River at mid-week, the 00Z run has the thing back over the Southwest U.S., and that, of course, has major implications on our weather here in Alabama.
Instead of a big round of rain and storms on Wednesday, followed by the coldest air so far this season by Thanksgiving, this idea will mean an extended period of wet weather, which might be an answer to prayer (although not the best travel weather). The 00Z GFS holds off the rain and storms until Thanksgiving day, and the rain continues through Friday and Saturday. This would really bring some beneficial rain to Alabama IF the solution is correct, but needless to say there is a huge amount of uncertainty.
I did peek at the 06Z run of the GFS, and it tends to side with the 00Z run (wetter solution for Alabama). Yep, its all voodoo for now, but noe way or another it looks like a very interesting week. I should also mention if the most recent runs do verify, there will be a major Thanksgiving snow storm for Denver.
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Busy day today… I am speaking to a group of educators this morning at Ross Bridge… then I will speak again at midday to a group of allworship.com supporters. Then, into the office where I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
