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Still looks like the main round of showers and storms will blow through here in the 9:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame.
SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for 5 counties in far Northwest Alabama (Lamar, Marion, Franklin, Colbert, and Lauderdale)… back into North Mississippi and West Tennessee.
Surface based CAPE values are over 1500 back in North Mississippi, and there are some decent 0 to 3 km helicity values as well, which means there could be a few rotating updrafts. But, wind fields are not especially strong, and SPC believes the primary risk will come from straight line winds within the watch area.
The storms will drop southward tonight, and they should slowly weaken as they move through Alabama as we lose the daytime heat and the air becomes more stable.
HOW MUCH RAIN? The NAM is now drier (the 12Z run)… it prints 0.39″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.33″ here. I think those numbers are pretty good… if we get one-half inch we will be lucky since the band of showers and storms should be moving along at a fairly rapid pace tonight.
COLDER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Both the GFS and the NAM are coming in with a high only in the mid 50s tomorrow, despite the return of sunshine. A stiff north wind will make it feel even colder… especially compared to today. The models are also trending colder for Friday morning, with lows expected now in the 28 to 32 degree range. Colder valleys might even reach the low to mid 20s. Everyone should have widespread frost.
THE WEEKEND: For now the weekend looks dry and pleasant with seasonal temperatures; highs in the 60s both days. We will start the day Saturday in the mid to upper 30s; the low early Sunday should be in the low to mid 40s.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The GFS has completely gone to the slower, warmer, and wetter solution for Alabama next week. The upper trough develops in the Southwest U.S…. and the 12Z run holds off the rain until Thanksgiving Day next week. If this run is correct, we will get a really good soaking on Thursday and Friday, with potential of over two inches. Back in the cold sector, a big time snow event is possible for Denver the day before Thanksgiving; not good for holiday travelers. And, needless to say, this all remains beyond our seven day time frame, so this could change again. But, confidence is growing with the idea of a significant rain event for Alabama toward the latter half of next week, and that is great news.
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J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information during the thunderstorm event tonight… don’t forget you can see our radar on the live stream over on the ABC 33/40 main weather page… very handy on days like this. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
